BARRY POSEN THE SECURITY DILEMMA AND ETHNIC CONFLICT PDF

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The Security Dilemma and Ethnic Conflict. Authors; Authors and affiliations. Barry R. Posen Nuclear Weapon Military Power Ethnic Conflict Military Capability. Posen first discusses security dilemma and then uses this concept to explain two cases: Why Croats and Serbs fought a war, and why Ukraine. 24 Posen, Barry, ‘The Security Dilemma and Ethnic Conflict’, Survival, 35 (), pp. 27–47 CrossRef | Google Scholar, esp. pp. 27–

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Ultimately; Posen is convincing in providing definitive answers to the original aim of his work; explaining the variance in ethnic conflict through the security dilemma and the individual factors within. Bibliographic Information Please login to be able to download file. The technological study is solely in regard to nuclear weapons capabilities disregarding conventional arms and how these supersede factors such as historical grievances, ethnic grouping and criminality in contributing to regional tensions and how they exacerbate the security dilemma.

The Security Dilemma and Confilct Conflict is useful for anyone with an interest in the current conflict in Eastern Ukraine. In the Balkans there are numerous instances across the previous centuries, most recently in WW2 and the Croat decision to classify Serbs as minorities in Croatia.

In the Yugoslav wars this manifested itself as elements of the Croat confilct wing considering German diplomatic support as leading toward inevitable western military support.

Any forces on hand are suitable for offensive baarry. Posen argues that Croatia overestimated the reliability and influence of the Federal Germany as an ally. Serbs viewed this diplomatic support as reminiscent of Nazi agreements with Croatian fascists. Emerging groups quickly trying to evaluate the threat held not just by armed enemy combatants, but all groups in close proximity. First, when offensive and defensive military forces are more or less identical, states cannot signal their conflivt intent by the kinds of military forces they choose to deploy.

The threat of international intervention is particularly relevant in the years after the Cold War, with humanitarian intervention barry more popular among western heads of state and institutions such as the International Criminal Court gaining prominence.

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Interestingly, Posen identifies a factor that is less obvious than the others — the issue of foreign legitimacy. The belief held that offensive military operations are more useful to nation states, particularly ones in an anarchic international system, to defensive capabilities.

How does Posen approach these problems? Technological and geographical variables are analysed by Posen in the article. Log In Sign Up. As such, an assessment of military capability and intent may be based on something such as a hotly contested historical event Croat alliances with Nazi Germany and the historical implications that come with this are used by Posen as opposed to the more reliable methods of reconnaissance, surveillance and intelligence gathering.

Thus, we should not exaggerate the impact of technology, except nuclear weapons.

Security Dilemma and Ethnic Conflict

In the Russia-Ukraine case, cknflict weapons mute the conventional competition, making group cohesion less of a military asset. Posen, whilst identifying Yugoslavia as a nation exercising universal conscription, provides no insight into the dominance of Serbs holding senior positions within the JNA and the perception held by the Croat community that the JNA was a Serb Army.

Absence of a strong state creates an anarchy within the country and makes each group worry about its own survival. But Russia’s human and material resources were three times more than Ukraine’s, and it was unlikely that the balance of military power will soon shift against Russia.

No clear bias in relation to the events is apparent which is unusual for pieces relating to the Yugoslav Wars. This relentless pursuit of defensive security is then transformed into a capability that is viewed by the other as solely offensive in ethnjc.

The answer is history.

This situation will pose a threat to other entities and will be responded in turn. Whilst nuclear weapons dilemma not present pksen Yugoslavia, this absence may be seen as a motivating factor not only for outside intervention but the aggressive tactics carried out by communities across the collapsed state. How can a newly independent group assess offensive implications of the other group’s identity power?

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The Balkan Wars dominated popular discourse and a great deal of western foreign policy of the s, and in recent years a conflict has developed in the Ukraine aand multiple complex issues. In regard to the Yugoslav wars, it is a useful insight into the conflict occurring at the time of writing and is one of the first to discount the simplistic explanations of primordialism and historical inevitability. The article is, as one would expect from an MIT academic, extremely clear and expertly written.

But during the communist war and famine ofUkrainian president blamed the bolshevicks, not the Russians. Nevertheless, this article is a nice example of the application of a realist concept to etbnic state-level-situation.

The ideal time for them to strike, therefore, is shortly after the collapse of centralised power but before the international community chooses to intervene page Posen aims to ascertain the differences in ethnic conflict across regions.

‘The Security Dilemma and Ethnic Conflict’ – A Literature Review | Daniel Blanthorn –

Second, Offense is more effective than defense. Indeed, the subsequent Ukrainian abandonment of its nuclear weapons lends much credence to the realist approach to international security it is questionable as to whether Russia would have engaged in conflict with Ukraine if barr latter had retained nuclear weapons, regardless of their condition or state of delivery methods and reading conflct account of relations at the time is fascinating.

Then Posen asks a critical question: Please login to be able to comment.

Please login to be able to download file. As the past decade has shown, number of ethnic conflicts did not skyrocketed and Posen’s theory was not needed much. A group identity helps the individual members cooperate to achieve their purposes. This article attempts to apply a basic realist concept, security dilemma, to account for civil conflicts following the collapse of the USSR.